Global Macro Intelligence Dashboard
Real-time economic intelligence across 20 economies — live IMF data, World Bank indicators, real-time markets & AI-powered insights.
Global Economic Heatmap
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Moderate stress. Some headwinds are present but no systemic risks.
Measures how far global CPI is above central bank targets. High = price instability is forcing restrictive policy.
Sovereign and corporate credit stress. High = spread widening, default risk rising in key markets.
EM currency volatility and USD strength. High = dollar squeeze pressuring EM debt service costs.
Forward-looking GDP trajectory. High = multiple major economies decelerating or contracting.
Trade war escalation, conflict zones, supply chain disruption. High = material supply shock risk.
Global debt at 315% of GDP. High = rising interest burden threatens fiscal space in key economies.
Economic Calendar
Major Economies Snapshot
World Bank LiveCountry Intelligence
20 economies · World Bank + IMF data
Central Bank Monitor
Policy bias & upcoming decisions
The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. Future adjustments will be data-dependent.
Inflation is on track to sustainably reach the 2% target. The Governing Council is prepared to adjust all its instruments within its mandate.
The MPC held Bank Rate at 4.50% in March 2026. Services inflation remains above target at 4.1%, warranting a gradual approach. Further cuts depend on evidence that domestic price pressures are sustainably easing.
The BoJ held rates at 0.75% in March 2026. Sustained wage growth and services inflation support the continued normalisation path. The Bank will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy evolves as projected.
The PBOC will implement moderately loose monetary policy, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit support for the real economy.
The MPC changed its stance to neutral and reduced the repo rate by 25bps. Inflation has moderated and growth prospects remain favourable.
The Committee will continue the hiking cycle at a pace of 100bps per meeting until the convergence of inflation to around 4.5% by end-2026.
In light of continued low inflation and a strong franc, the SNB is reducing its policy rate. Further reductions cannot be excluded if necessary.
Global Macro Scenarios
Probability-weighted outcome distribution
Fed cuts 3x in 2024, inflation falls to 2.5%, unemployment rises mildly to 4.2%
Growth stays resilient, inflation re-accelerates, Fed stays higher for longer
Lagged rate effects trigger credit crunch, GDP contracts -1.5%, unemployment spikes
Oil shock drives inflation re-acceleration while growth collapses — 1970s redux
Global Macro Events
Global Macro Events
Real-time policy & data releases
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50% at the March 2026 meeting, as widely expected. The updated SEP (dot plot) shows the median FOMC member projects one 25bps cut in 2026. Chair Powell noted core PCE at 2.4% shows progress but the last mile of disinflation is proving slow. Labour market remains solid with unemployment at 4.1%.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% at the January 2026 meeting, the highest level since 2008. Governor Ueda cited sustained wage growth and service sector inflation as justification. The BoJ meets again tomorrow. Markets are pricing a 30% probability of another 25bps hike to 1.0%. JGB yields have risen to 1.2%, a 13-year high.
The US has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to an effective rate of 35%, triggering retaliatory measures. The IMF has warned of a 0.5pp hit to global GDP growth in 2026. Canada and Mexico have secured exemptions under USMCA but face uncertainty. Shipping volumes from Asia to North America are down 12% YoY. The trade war is contributing to supply-side inflation pressures.
UK Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% YoY in February 2026, above the 2% target. Services inflation remains stubborn at 4.1%, a key concern for the Bank of England. The MPC held rates at 4.50% at its March 2026 meeting. Wage growth has moderated to 4.2%, and the next MPC decision is due May 7, 2026, where a 25bps cut is possible if services inflation continues to ease.
The ECB held its deposit facility rate at 2.65% at the March meeting. Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in Q4 2025, with Germany in its fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. Inflation at 2.1% gives space to cut but the ECB is cautious about moving ahead of data. The next meeting on April 30 is a "live" meeting according to sources.
Brazil's central bank (BCB) raised the Selic rate to 13.25% citing persistent inflation at 5.1%, well above the 3% target. Fiscal concerns have weakened the BRL, importing inflation. The hiking cycle is expected to peak at 14-14.5% by mid-2026. Brazil's growth has slowed to 2.1% amid tight financial conditions and external headwinds.
Beijing unveiled a RMB 3.5tn ($485bn) infrastructure and domestic consumption stimulus package in March 2026, the largest since 2009. Targets include renewable energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and rail upgrades. The PBOC cut RRR by 50bps simultaneously. Property sector remains the key risk — tier-1 home prices are down 18% from peak.
OPEC+ agreed to begin unwinding its 2.2mbpd voluntary cuts starting Q2 2026, as Saudi Arabia seeks to defend market share amid rising non-OPEC supply. Brent crude fell to $72/bbl on the news. Lower oil prices will ease inflation globally but hit Gulf state fiscal positions. The IEA forecasts oil market surplus of 0.8mbpd in 2026.
Recession Radar
2 economies contracting — negative GDP growth means these countries are producing fewer goods and services than a year ago. Workers are being laid off, corporate earnings are falling, and governments face falling tax revenues. Watch for contagion if these are major trading partners of larger economies. A further 4 economies below 1% growth are in a danger zone — any shock could tip them negative.
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