AI Intelligence Summary
Russia's wartime economy has defied short-term forecasts of collapse through fiscal stimulus (military spending), capital controls, and China/India energy redirection. GDP grew 3.6% in 2023 — primarily war-economy effect. However, structural deterioration is accumulating: talent exodus (800k+ emigrants), technology isolation, capital stock depletion, and the eventual commodity price normalisation will expose underlying vulnerabilities. Inflation and labour shortages driven by mobilisation are pressuring the central bank to maintain very high rates.
3.60%
GDP Growth
7.40%
CPI Inflation
8.10%
Core CPI
2.90%
Unemployment
16.00%
Policy Rate
8.60%
Real Rate
18.80%
Debt/GDP
54.80
PMI
GDP Growth Rate
Annual real GDP growth (%)
Inflation (CPI)
Consumer price index annual change (%)
Monetary Policy Rate
Central bank benchmark rate (%)
Unemployment Rate
% of labour force unemployed
Full Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 3.60% | strong |
| Headline Inflation | 7.40% | high |
| Core Inflation | 8.10% | high |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.9% | low |
| Policy Rate | 16.00% | restrictive |
| Real Interest Rate | 8.60% | tight |
| Yield Curve Spread | 2.84% | normal |
| Debt / GDP | 18.8% | sustainable |
| Current Account | 5.40% | surplus |
| Fiscal Balance | -2.80% | deficit |
| PMI (Composite) | 54.8 | expansion |
| M2 Growth | 19.40% | rapid |
| Industrial Production | 6.80% | growing |
| Trade Balance | $127.4B | surplus |
| FDI Inflows | $-12.4B | moderate |
| FX Reserves Coverage | 22.8 months | adequate |