AI Intelligence Summary
The UK is in a gradual disinflation and easing cycle. The BoE cut rates to 4.50% in February 2026 (8-1 MPC vote) and meets tomorrow (March 19). Today's CPI print of 2.7% shows progress but services inflation at 4.1% limits the pace of cuts. The UK housing market is sensitive to rates — a key transmission channel. GDP growth has recovered to around 1%, better than Germany but still below trend. The fiscal position is strained with debt near 100% GDP, limiting Labour government's spending ambitions. The pound at 1.34 vs USD reflects relative resilience compared to EUR.
1.00%
GDP Growth
2.70%
CPI Inflation
3.60%
Core CPI
4.40%
Unemployment
4.50%
Policy Rate
1.80%
Real Rate
99.20%
Debt/GDP
52.40
PMI
GDP Growth Rate
Annual real GDP growth (%)
Inflation (CPI)
Consumer price index annual change (%)
Monetary Policy Rate
Central bank benchmark rate (%)
Unemployment Rate
% of labour force unemployed
Full Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 1.00% | moderate |
| Headline Inflation | 2.70% | target |
| Core Inflation | 3.60% | elevated |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | moderate |
| Policy Rate | 4.50% | restrictive |
| Real Interest Rate | 1.80% | neutral |
| Yield Curve Spread | 0.28% | normal |
| Debt / GDP | 99.2% | elevated |
| Current Account | -3.20% | deficit |
| Fiscal Balance | -4.80% | deficit |
| PMI (Composite) | 52.4 | expansion |
| M2 Growth | 2.80% | slow |
| Industrial Production | 0.40% | growing |
| Trade Balance | $-34.8B | deficit |
| FDI Inflows | $32.4B | strong |
| FX Reserves Coverage | 3.4 months | moderate |