AI Intelligence Summary
India remains the world's fastest-growing major economy at ~6.5% in 2026, though growth has moderated from the 8%+ peak. The RBI cut rates by 25bps in October 2025 to 6.25%, adopting a neutral stance as food inflation moderated to 5%. India is on track to become the world's 3rd largest economy, with manufacturing gaining share from China due to the China+1 strategy. Key risks: global trade war headwinds for the tech sector, high fiscal deficit (-5.9% GDP), and monsoon sensitivity for rural demand. The Sensex has rallied strongly on AI and tech investment themes.
6.50%
GDP Growth
5.00%
CPI Inflation
3.20%
Core CPI
7.40%
Unemployment
6.25%
Policy Rate
1.25%
Real Rate
84.80%
Debt/GDP
57.20
PMI
GDP Growth Rate
Annual real GDP growth (%)
Inflation (CPI)
Consumer price index annual change (%)
Monetary Policy Rate
Central bank benchmark rate (%)
Unemployment Rate
% of labour force unemployed
Full Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 6.50% | strong |
| Headline Inflation | 5.00% | elevated |
| Core Inflation | 3.20% | elevated |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.4% | high |
| Policy Rate | 6.25% | restrictive |
| Real Interest Rate | 1.25% | neutral |
| Yield Curve Spread | 1.08% | normal |
| Debt / GDP | 84.8% | elevated |
| Current Account | -1.40% | deficit |
| Fiscal Balance | -5.90% | deficit |
| PMI (Composite) | 57.2 | expansion |
| M2 Growth | 10.40% | rapid |
| Industrial Production | 5.40% | growing |
| Trade Balance | $-24.2B | deficit |
| FDI Inflows | $52.8B | strong |
| FX Reserves Coverage | 11.2 months | adequate |