AI Intelligence Summary
The US economy has delivered a soft landing — growth resilient at ~2.5%, unemployment 4.1%, inflation decelerating toward target. The Fed held at 4.33% today (March 18, 2026 FOMC) and the dot plot signals one 25bps cut this year. The "last mile" of disinflation (getting from 2.5% to 2%) is proving stubborn, with services inflation sticky. Trade tariff escalation poses a supply-side inflation risk. The yield curve has re-steepened, removing the classic recession signal. AI-driven productivity is a genuine upside tailwind, boosting investment and corporate earnings.
2.50%
GDP Growth
3.00%
CPI Inflation
2.40%
Core CPI
4.10%
Unemployment
4.33%
Policy Rate
1.33%
Real Rate
124.80%
Debt/GDP
52.70
PMI
GDP Growth Rate
Annual real GDP growth (%)
Inflation (CPI)
Consumer price index annual change (%)
Monetary Policy Rate
Central bank benchmark rate (%)
Unemployment Rate
% of labour force unemployed
Full Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 2.50% | strong |
| Headline Inflation | 3.00% | elevated |
| Core Inflation | 2.40% | target |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | moderate |
| Policy Rate | 4.33% | restrictive |
| Real Interest Rate | 1.33% | neutral |
| Yield Curve Spread | 0.60% | normal |
| Debt / GDP | 124.8% | high |
| Current Account | -3.40% | deficit |
| Fiscal Balance | -6.80% | deficit |
| PMI (Composite) | 52.7 | expansion |
| M2 Growth | 3.20% | slow |
| Industrial Production | 1.80% | growing |
| Trade Balance | $-72.4B | deficit |
| FDI Inflows | $312.0B | strong |
| FX Reserves Coverage | 3.2 months | moderate |