AI Intelligence Summary
Japan's historic monetary normalisation is underway. The BoJ has raised rates to 0.75% — the highest since 2008 — and meets tomorrow (March 19, 2026) with markets pricing 30% probability of another hike to 1.0%. The key question: can Japan sustain 2%+ inflation and wage growth to justify continued normalisation? JGB yields at 1.2% are testing the fiscal sustainability of 255% debt-to-GDP. Yen appreciation from normalisation will drag on export earnings but provide relief to import-squeezed consumers. The unwinding of global carry trades funded in JPY is a systemic risk watch.
1.40%
GDP Growth
2.20%
CPI Inflation
2.20%
Core CPI
2.50%
Unemployment
0.75%
Policy Rate
-1.45%
Real Rate
256.80%
Debt/GDP
49.80
PMI
GDP Growth Rate
Annual real GDP growth (%)
Inflation (CPI)
Consumer price index annual change (%)
Monetary Policy Rate
Central bank benchmark rate (%)
Unemployment Rate
% of labour force unemployed
Full Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 1.40% | moderate |
| Headline Inflation | 2.20% | target |
| Core Inflation | 2.20% | target |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.5% | low |
| Policy Rate | 0.75% | accommodative |
| Real Interest Rate | -1.45% | negative |
| Yield Curve Spread | 1.18% | normal |
| Debt / GDP | 256.8% | high |
| Current Account | 3.80% | surplus |
| Fiscal Balance | -5.20% | deficit |
| PMI (Composite) | 49.8 | contraction |
| M2 Growth | 2.80% | slow |
| Industrial Production | 1.40% | growing |
| Trade Balance | $-48.2B | deficit |
| FDI Inflows | $28.4B | strong |
| FX Reserves Coverage | 16.3 months | adequate |